Conan O'Brien to take over "The Tonight Show"

NBC reported on September 27th that Conan O'Brien would take over the helm at "The Tonight Show" from Jay Leno in 2009.

Here are a few links on the story:
http://www.montereyherald.com/mld/montereyherald/entertainment/9826132.htm
http://www.troyrecord.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=13034147&BRD=1170&PAG=461&dept_id=32272&rfi=6

Leno's contract does not expire for 5 more years. So, we would expect that NBC would have some time before deciding if they want to renew Leno's contract or if not deciding whom they want to replace him with. But the network decided with firm conviction that they wanted O'Brien after Leno, and wanted to make certain that they got him when the time came.

"NBC executives approached [Leno], saying they didn't want to lose O'Brien. He endorsed the move and set his own 2009 exit date, when he'll be 59."
Changing "administrations" can be a sensitive topic for the exiting "administration". Traditionally, changeovers occur as quickly as possible to prevent hostility from the existing "administration". However, NBC 1) fears O'Brien will be lured away by a competitor, and 2) wants to avoid the horrible transition that occurred between Carson and Leno that caused them to lose Letterman, and also caused some unpleasantness for Leno. A quick turnover this will be not, since Leno has a contract for the next five years, and this could be a sensitive issue for Leno. They want to replace him with O'Brien, and they almost replaced him with O'Brien before his last contract. If NBC does not play this right, Leno could be bitter to be losing his spot. NBC wants Leno to be happy so that he will continue to host a really good show. They need to show Leno that they have and do appreciate his abilities as a talk show host (which is certainly true as he has done wonderful things to the ratings). NBC has cleverly discussed this first with Leno, allowing him to feel that he is setting his own end date. Leno will be 59 and has emphasized that this is an ideal time for him so that he can take his wife out, as promised to dinner. NBC also involved Leno in the changeover by reminding them of how horrible his changeover was and expressed how they wanted to do a better job this time. By giving Leno some implied power (whether not he really had any power is definitely up for debate) in the decision making process, they assured a more amicable transition.

"[NBC] cut off early competitors to steal away O'Brien"
O'Brien is certainly a highly valued commodity. NBC almost hired him to replace Leno right after Leno's last contract ran out. Fox and other networks have signaled their desire to steal him away from NBC. NBC has the inside advantage in that O'Brien currently works for NBC. But they need to take advantage of it soon to make sure that they can keep O'Brien. His young age (guaranteeing many more years of high ratings) and popularity (2.5 million viewers nightly) make him the obvious next choice for a successor.

Age
I stop to wonder about Leno's age of 59. Is Leno really going to be too old to do the show? Is O'Brien's age of 46 really a distinct advantage? Both shows are most popular with eh 18-49 crowd according to the Nielsen ratings. Does Leno's old age appeal to an older crowd? Is it too late for his viewers to stay up to watch? Will Leno move to a show with an earlier time slot, or will he really retire as he has planned. It is interesting to note that I think older viewers watch "The Tonight Show", and younger viewers watch Conan, perhaps because of Conan's earlier time slot as well as his younger interpretation on the events. I wonder if they will replace Conan's current slot with a new 30-year-old fresh new face.

Sex
I notice that all of the late night shows are hosted by men. I wonder if the viewer demographics are mostly male. The site http://nbckicks.tripod.com/factory.html mentions the following quote: "Late-night comedy writing is a predominately male occupation, perhaps because the hosts are men, and the humor is often about male adolescent anxieties. Of 12 writers on "Late Night," only two are women. "Very few women apply for these jobs," Ross says. " I can't help but wonder if there is a market out there for a woman hosted late-night show, I imagine a punchy and quick-witted 37-year-old. I wonder if there are no women hosts because they haven't been tried or if there really is no viewer base for such a show.

On a side note: Tony Blair:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/comment/0,9236,1318134,00.html
Tony Blair is also planning to step down in 5 years. His choice of five years is interesting for many reasons. 1) People are rather unhappy about him right now because of the Iraq war. 2) He is very sick, and may not even make it for the next 5 years. 3) If he stays for the next 5 years he will have stayed longer than the 11.5 record of his predecessor Margaret Thatcher. All three of these reasons seem to suggest that he should get out of there earlier. But to those who want him out, there is certainly some appeasement offered in the idea that they know he will be out in the next five years. I feel like without this promise there is no way that he will last the next 5 years. His statement seems to say "all right! I am leaving already!" But his statement has a trick in that he says this, but by saying that he will step down in 5 years, he is actually probably able to extend his stay longer than he would be able to without it. People are willing to wait if they are positive that he will leave. So his move was intelligent. He was able to appease his dissenters while allowing him to stay longer than he may have been able to with a high positive opinion. Clever.